I think making the bets not anonymous is sufficient imho.
If a gov't official (including the president) is leaking classified information, there's already laws about that isnt there? (Whether it's effective is another question - i'm assuming it's currently effective).
> Congrats, your price movement signaled non public information to the market!
so from bin laden's perspective, this would've been a good outcome isnt it?
Can't say what a good outcome is without saying who.
What if enemies of the USA had corrupt generals who also make bets on anti-US actions to profit personally, and inadvertently reveal information to the CIA/NSA, who then prevent such anti-US actions? Would that not have been a good outcome as well?
Information is information - and one cannot say if it's good or not. However, i am a believer that more information generally do good than bad - assuming the consumer of said information is smart.
> Are you losing money because you bet on the wrong outcome ...
It doesnt matter, because you chose to bet. You do not need to bet in order to make use of the information being revealed by those who are betting.
>so from bin laden's perspective, this would've been a good outcome isnt it?
Of course
> Information is information - and one cannot say if it's good or not. However, i am a believer that more information generally do good than bad - assuming the consumer of said information is smart
Smart doesn’t always equal good.
The consumer can be smart and use the information to benefit themselves (and possibly harming others), but this doesn’t necessarily justify releasing information. In fact, even Snowden, who famously released a lot of information, didn’t release everything. He applied his judgment and avoided publishing some stuff. Was his judgment correct? I don’t know. The question is - at some point, is information release always neutral?
> Are you losing money because you bet on the wrong outcome ...
It doesnt matter, because you chose to bet. You do not need to bet in order to make use of the information being revealed by those who are betting.
What I’m saying is, if I bet on event X and X happens, I would expect to be paid. Instead I may not get paid simply because someone else who bet against X has the power to suppress any proof of X happening (via threats, money,…). This doesn’t happen with regular sport bets because sport events inherently have a lot of witnesses (physically present at the place where things are happening), there are referees, the teams themselves advertise the results, there is a professional league keeping scores and so on. If you bet on someone getting killed abroad by some military abroad, or military skirmish happening in a remote place, or other plausible but hard to verify event, faking something with AI or a friendly reporter is easier. And because people use cryptocurrencies in this platform, how can you prove active manipulation vs bona fide in some video some reporter published? “Hey, I just saw this video, who knew it was wrong?”.
The argument that you can lose money simply because it’s a bet, even when you should have won, is not convincing. Ok, I can lose but if I win shouldn’t I get the money?
That's fine but as someone whose side hobby is literally politics, it's not hard to convince people that disagree with you to join your side. This is what organizing is, please note I am not talking about discussing things online (advocacy). Online advocacy is by far the worse form of politics, albeit the most popular, where you will rarely, if ever, convince anyone of anything.
You're going to have to go out and speak with people that disagree with you person to person to try to convince them to join your cause.
> Then the person who harmed him will be prosecuted ... NY Times isn’t calling for violence.
And the negligent driver also didn't mean to cause injury, yet we have laws on negligent driving.
If the NY Times would have known that harm could come to someone by having information published, they should consult and/or take measures to prevent that harm (or at least, take measures to minimize it).
No, because those people are already public figures. They own companies that are publicly known (i don't mean publicly traded), and thus by proxy, are public face of those companies.
Or they appear(ed) in public to make something of being in public (such as lobbying, or civic activities, or philanthropy etc). This makes any article about them not a doxx - they already revealed themselves publicly. You cannot segregate public affairs of the person with private affairs.
Mr Back is already a very public figure in the bitcoin/crypto community who is the face of a public company. This isn't some rando who nobody has ever heard of before.
It has their uses. If, for example, a company wants to issue fleet computers to workers or school to students, you want to have secure boot on those devices to prevent tampering. Secure boot makes it so that physical access is not the end all of security.
If you own the computer yourself, you "ought" to be able to turn off these measures in a way that is undetectable. Being unable to do so would be the red line imho - and looking at those hypervisor cracks available, it's not quite being crossed. The pessimistic, but realistic future prediction is that various media companies would want and lobby for machines to have unbreakable enclaves for which they can "trust" to DRM your machine, and it's just boiling the frog right now. Windows 11's new TPM requirement is testament to that.
Switch to linux asap - that's about the only thing a consumer is capable of doing.
This is coming. In particular, without a Secure-Boot-enforced allowlist of operating systems, it will be near impossible to verify that an OS connecting to the internet complies with your locality's age verification laws, so it will soon be illegal to run a computer that does not make Secure Boot mandatory and connect it to the network.
If you're starting to think "huh, maybe that's why these age verification laws suddenly became all the rage", you're onto something. Whatever the case, "general purpose computing" is definitely cooked.
The laws in my locality place requirements on the service provider (e.g. the adult website operator), not on random computer owners or manufacturers or software vendors.
Newsom signed a law that places those requirements on every operating system in California, and in practice, organizations tend to comply with California's terrible laws no matter where you are, rather than stopping doing business there or making two variants of their products.
With software it's trivial to have a switch for "California compliant" mode, but in any case, that makes it clear that such criticisms should be directed at California. Other (generally "red") states already had a more reasonable solution: make the sites offering the restricted service liable for their actions just like other businesses.
The problem is that you could face liability if you do business in the United States and permit a minor in California to use an OS in non-California-compliant mode. If you're an "OS provider" in Wichita, KS, California will find that its jurisdiction still applies because the minor was in California and sue you in its courts. If you fail to turn up that's a judgement for the state by default. (And if you do turn up, it's a judgement for the state as soon as they prove a kid ran your non-age-checking OS.) And, thanks to the "full faith and credit" clause of the Constitution, California will be able to collect on its judgement against you in Wichita.
Hardware vendors are not going to want that kind of liability, in California, Colorado, New York, or anywhere else. So they will switch to selling hardware with locked bootloaders and only allowing approved operating systems within that locality (which for end-user PCs will mean pretty much just Windows). There is still foreign hardware, but those chinesium PCs are going to be confiscated by ICE unless the Chinese manufacturers also play ball.
Besides all this... federal legislation is coming.
If you'd humor me, or just read the last paragraph for a tldr...
So let's say a PC builder(an individual; not a company) were to donate a PC to charity. Let's say it's built with a fairly recent MSI motherboard(https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0BRQSWSFQ/) 'MSI PRO B760-P' if you'd prefer to avoid amazon.
I remove all my internal SSDs and NVME drives but buy a new 1tb SSD for whoever receives the PC. I also install a Linux OS, as well as sign the secure boot keys via sbctl myself, setup ukify, efibootmgr, etc. Everything the recipient would need to switch over to another OS if they so choose.
But oh no, the donated PC landed in the hands of Johnny, a 17-year old in California.
So who's at fault here, MSI for creating a BIOS that allows for non-windows EFI images to be installed? The PC Builder(donator) for knowingly installing Linux(though not knowing where it would end up)?
This is kind of what confuses me and I'm curious what this means for future hardware sold in the US and those who build PCs for their own use or others. Most modern motherboards are "locked down" by default, but can easily be unlocked by the end-user, it may take a few extra steps or be a bit harder to find but still pretty simple for someone moderately tech-savvy.
The full faith and credit clause does not apply if the court lacks jurisdiction, which California clearly would. There's a reason "California compliant" already exists as a phrase; you can buy and sell things that break California law outside of California. If you bring it in that's on you.
General purpose computing as it was done in the 1900s is cooked for the average user because there is no market incentive for it to exist. The actual market incentive revolves around apps as they provide user value along with the ability to deploy custom apps.
> If, for example, a company wants to issue fleet computers to workers or school to students, you want to have secure boot on those devices to prevent tampering. Secure boot makes it so that physical access is not the end all of security.
Measured boot is actually better for that: You can still boot whatever you want however you want, but hashes are different which can be used for e.g. remote attestation. Secure boot has to prevent that "unauthorized" code (whatever that means for each setup) can ever run. If it does, game over. That means less freedom and flexibility.
Measured boot isn't any better. Look at Android phones, where it's technically possible to unlock your bootloader, but a ton of apps (e.g., McDonald's and most banking apps) use remote attestation to see whether you did so and will refuse to work if you did.
> underlying threat posted by AI to society, the economy and human freedom persists
I would deny that AI poses any such threat. There are actors who would use the tool in ways that threaten as you described, but that is a threat from said actor, not AI - unless you're claiming that an AGI would be capable of such independent actions.
AI is similar in transformative power to how the internet was a transformative power - might even be greater, if it is more commonly available for use through out the world. Whether that transformative power is doing good or bad really depends on the people doing it, not on the tech. I would bet that the future is going to be better because of AI, than to imagine a worse future and act to stunt the tech.
> I would deny that AI poses any such threat. There are actors who would use the tool in ways that threaten as you described, but that is a threat from said actor, not AI
Of course, it is popular to deny it. People constantly tell themselves "it is people, not tech". They make valid, yet banal and inconsequential statement. This distinction has no bearing on reality.
> So you're saying that if people hadn't invented weapons, there would be no violence?
If anything, if people hadn't invented weapons, they would not use weapons to enact violence, and this in turn will impact the practical nature of violence.
> The claim that AI is itself dangerous has no merit.
My claim is that considering any technology by itself is pointless. There is no such thing as thing by itself. Technology always exists in structural setting, and in turn shapes this structure.
Those who are concerned is implying that any new distribution mechanism is not going to favour them.
And under the capitalist system, if nothing changes, the "new" distribution system is indeed not going to favour them - at best there would be some sort of UBI, and at worst you would be left to starve in the streets.
However, i cannot see how one can transition to a new system, and yet have the existing powers in the current system agree and not be disadvantaged.
If a gov't official (including the president) is leaking classified information, there's already laws about that isnt there? (Whether it's effective is another question - i'm assuming it's currently effective).
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