Everything is obvious in hindsight, but the data (and theory) at the time was that this had a really good shot at being the next big thing in a world where >90% of drugs never make it past clinical trials. 10% probability of success * $200B in lifetime sales (assuming a Keytruda level smash hit) means an EV of ~$20B or more. Not a surprise more than a few companies wanted a shot at it.
Actually a lot of drugs make it all the way through to approval from Phase I. I think you probably mean preclinical to approval. It's something like 33% across all therapy areas in the USA, and in some areas closer to 50%.
Handwriting or using a typewriter is great if you're writing something solely for enjoyment of the process. But if you want to store, organize and use any of your writing in the future - you have to go digital.
How so? Most of these companies will take a hit but will be fine Alphabet, Amazon, Google, etc can write off their entire investments in AI and will be a-OK. The pure AI companies will obviously be dead.
This is what people said about the banks in 2007. Just because the big players’ balance sheets can take the hit doesn’t mean the wider economy is insulated.
A) they still screwed the economy and everyone in it except themselves. B) Nobody gives a shit about the banks as businesses. They got bailed out because they physically made much of the world’s economy function, like plumbing. That’s not going to happen here.
You're still ignoring their mention of the wider economy. The banks were bailed out, but everyone downstream of them still felt the brunt of the impact, atop paying for that bailout with tax dollars.
All of those companies will be fine, but they are currently valued on the stock market for future earnings. Investors anticipate them making a lot more money in the future. So stocks will slide dramatically. Open AI and Anthropic might not survive. And suddenly you see a 20-50% pull back on stocks. That impacts retirement and pension funds. It may trigger a panic and sell off across sectors.
The stock market. Stocks crash, companies go belly-up, tons of people get laid off, unemployment spikes, people die. I don’t give a shit about the companies themselves. I do give a shit about who they employ, both directly and downstream, and the job market that will result from many of them losing their jobs.
What do you mean? Pandoras box has already been opened. Even if OpenAI disappears, there will be another one to take its marketshare. The tech is too useful to die
Agree. The author of that article took 0 responsbility and despite the warnings of "Hey, AI with power in prod is a bad idea" thought "This wouldn't happen to me!" and then when it does "HOW COULD IT DO THIS?!"
Absolutely dumb take. There are plenty of very bright and talented people that would have made excellent teachers but chose different career paths because - surprise surprise - the pay is better.
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