MSFT, GOOGL, META, AMZN guided ~$285B combined capex for 2025 — roughly matching their total net income. Every dollar of profit is being plowed back in, which only works if #1 and #2 both hold.

advertising is ~76% of Alphabet revenue. Cloud is 12% and growing 30%+, but margins arent comparable yet — search basically prints money, cloud is still scaling to prove it.

And most of that ad revenue is google search.

But google search has subpar quality for many queries compared to ChatGPT and other AI providers. Even if they did fix the quality issue, nobody has yet got a good way to integrate paid ads within an LLM response.

I'd say those are 2 huge risks to their business.

The 10-K makes this concrete. AWS is 17% of Amazon revenue but ~60% of operating income (FY2024). The retail arm runs on thin margins — the infrastructure arm subsidizes everything.

The 10-K numbers back this up. 43 big tech companies in 2025: net income +$157B but FCF shrank $10B. All eaten by capex. CFOs will notice.

Tesla's 10-K breaks Energy Gen & Storage out as its own segment. Megapack (commercial batteries) is doing the heavy lifting there — Solar Roof was always a small piece of an already small segment by revenue

MSFT, GOOGL, META are spending $60-100B+ annually on AI infra partly to own the cost floor. the moat isnt the model, its the infrastructure.

90% of NVDA revenue is one segment — data center. Germany has 83M people and industrial output across dozens of sectors. All that market cap rests on a single product cycle.

The GPU situation is even more concentrated. NVDA data center was $39B last fiscal year — roughly 90% of their total revenue. No European alternative exists for AI compute workloads.