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Let’s suppose that’s true

What’s so special about the harness - why wouldn’t others be able to replicate it?


Someone in power doesn’t get to choose - the board of directors do. Who’s job is to act in the best interest of shareholders.

Firms tend to follow peers in an industry - once one blinks the rest follow.


The board of directors are also people in power - why not replace them with an LLM as well if it works so well for CEOs?


> Someone in power doesn’t get to choose - the board of directors do. Who’s job is to act in the best interest of shareholders.

Alas, shareholder value is a great ideal, but it tends to be honoured in practice rather less strictly.

As you can also see when sudden competition leads to rounds of efficiency improvements, cost cutting and product enhancements: even without competition, a penny saved is a penny earned for shareholders. But only when fierce competition threatens to put managers' jobs at risk, do they really kick into overdrive.


>shareholder value is a great ideal

It's one of the most horrible ideas ever, responsible for anything from market abuse and enshittification to rent seeking and patent trolling.


> Someone in power doesn’t get to choose - the board of directors do

Since the board of directors can decide to replace the CEO, it's not the CEO who holds the (ultimate) power, it's the board of directors.


Since the majority shareholder(s) can decide to replace the board of directors, it’s not the board of directors who holds the (ultimate) power, it’s the majority shareholder(s).


Indeed, and there we reached the end of the chain.


LLM’s are capable of searching information spaces and generating some outputs that one can use to do their job.

But it’s not taking anyone’s job, ever. People are not bots, a lot of the work they do is tacit and goes well beyond the capabilities and abilities of llm’s.

Many tech firms are essentially mature and are currently using too much labour. This will lead to a natural cycle of lay offs if they cannot figure out projects to allocate the surplus labour. This is normal and healthy - only a deluded economist believes in ‘perfect’ stuff.


"it’s not taking anyone’s job, ever"

It has already and that doesn't mean new jobs haven't been created or that those new jobs went to those who lost their jobs.


In this entire thread of conversation, I never said that LLMs would take people's jobs, and that is not something I believe.


The models don’t get better on every dimension as they scale up - there’s trade offs.

I’m convinced specialised models are the way but this means writing off the investment in existing assets which they won’t do for obvious reasons.


This was my suspicion. They had a bad training run that was really good at a few things.


Doesn't seem to match the buzz internally at Anthropic about it?


The bigger point of focus is that the enterprise value accrues to assets associated with software production.

What happened to all that nonsense about LLM’s solving physics, science etc? Lmao that certainly is not happening.

The natural home of LLM’s is in relation to software production.

The question is can Anthropic and OAI survive? If OAI can’t make their entry into the ad business work then they will fight over the same territory. Meaning both of their chances of survival drop as Google who is a monster in relation to software production will not only seek to kill them but buy their GPU’s at a discounted price.


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