> Don't you think a smarter way to run a business is to capture more of the market if you have the resources to do so?
Because if everyone is doing the same, then it's just brutal competition. Margins will squeeze, and eventually very lean companies will become the norm. In time, this means that the pool of information workers will change tremendously.
Exactly right, it's Porter's Five Forces with Threats of Substitutes and Threats of New Entrants, which means that margins will be compressed massively, which means that being a lawyer will often mean lower wages. The p99() of lawyer wages will probably decline, but the max() will likely increase for the niches that are not adequately covered by AI use cases.
I just did the same. Absolutely awful. I assume OpenCode's heavy context is a problem, and it's probably better to use Liquid's own OpenCode alternative for this.
ha, exactly... like, the % change could be minuscule (or worse, it might only be a perceived difference, the actual quality may have regressed, or the scenario just didn't lend itself to that specific model) but people will be on here proclaiming that they're now shipping 10x the number of PRs.
Same. It's a nightmare from a Porter's Five Forces perspective.
There will be a ton of businesses competing in this space, and there will be something of a moat due to how capital intensive the business can be, but there will still basically be infinite competitors.
Right, and it’s just the wrong, maybe weirdest correlation to suggest, and I’m someone that loves to find unexpected connections between things. ZIRP had nothing to do with this “no-man” phenomenon, it predated ZIRP.
And in the agentic world, that liability is both minimized and amplified. Teams that successfully mitigate AI risks will be able to churn out massive amounts of sustainable code.
> a UI that makes claude code or codex accessible to the average user.
It'll just be power users. We're moving toward a world of significantly fewer analysts and more into "Super SMEs" that can actually learn tools like Claude and manage enormous complexity with them.
Just giving average users these tools will produce garbage. This example from Claude is so contrived and any business analyst can see how a process that requires uploading additional data will fail. You can't expect users that don't even know their own data to be able to make this thing work.
There will be no "average" user in the future. It'll be multi-disciplinary SMEs that are extremely creative and knowledgeable about their businesses.
Sadly I feel the Excel analogy holds still, where maybe 80% of its users can't write a SUMIF() formula or make a pivot table to save their lives, yet they will happily use Excel every day as digital grid paper. Meanwhile Microsoft made a lot of money selling Excel licenses.
It’s my favorite analogy against the cliche LLM will revolutionize all white collar work. Excel is probably the most powerful business application most people have used, but as you said, people only scratch the surface. No LLM magic will make people more fluent with software. Sadly it’s a combination of not knowing what you don’t know, and time pressure from the employer. My analogy usually ends by saying that if the government mandated 200 hours of Excel courses, it would probably be a faster and cheaper productivity leap than adding an LLM into everything.
I think you’re underestimating “average users”. If we talk about the median, then probably you’re right, but if we talk about “the group of people clustered around the average” I think there’s a lot of untapped potential, especially in people who assumed data and programming were unknowable/impossible and have therefore been held back by “good” tools like excel
> Looks like Elon's finally giving up on XAI and just selling the compute
I don't think that's certain yet, but I do think that the open-source models like Gemma and Qwen are getting so good so fast that even Anthropic has real risk around the long-term value of their models and tooling.
Basically, if I'm Anthropic or xAI, I try to get revenue whenever and wherever possible and see what sticks. There's no value in playing for monopolistic control when everything is so volatile.
Because if everyone is doing the same, then it's just brutal competition. Margins will squeeze, and eventually very lean companies will become the norm. In time, this means that the pool of information workers will change tremendously.