> If you are a heavy user of coding agents these plans are a fantastic deal. I just ran the ccusage tool on my laptop to get an estimate of how much I would have spent if I were to pay for API tokens in the past 30 days and got
You think this is fantastic deal only because they use similar like tricks where they inflate the price and tell you something supposed to cost $1000 but they have this today promo for $100.
I was there too and paying for a while. Few weeks ago I tried DeepSeek V4 Pro - expected its gonna be shit but its actually pretty good.
The deal is I pay daily ~$1 for DSV4-pro for ~100M API token usage. And they probably not getting broke because >90% of those token in practice is cache read and they very well optimized for that.
Yep, exactly this. And I have so much less anxiety that I have to use my 5-hour/weekly usage or I lose it... with deepseek api the credits never expire, I can use them when I want, how much I want and the prices are ridiculously low for the quality/intelligence/performance.
GPT 5.5 is maybe 4x the size of v4 pro, hard to compare price since cache hit is basically free with Deepseek, but 40x cheaper (with their 75% off) seems about right.
you doing probably something wrong, I used Deepseek v4 pro with opencode and in a day used 100M tokens for ~$2. Majority of tokens are cache tokens and those are extremely cheap in deepseek bordering free.
I compare ultra wealthy to blackholes - overtime they accumulate more and more mass and reduce mass elsewhere. But even in nature we have Hawking radiation (which leads to black hole evaporation). So for me wealth taxation is similar like this slow black hole evaporation which seems fair.
at least all financial assets (stocks, etc) are easy to assess value so why not start with that? same with gold, silver etc. Some minimal amount you can make it nontaxable to reduce administrative burden.
this a million times. Land easy, already being taxed. Any regulated financial instrument, also easy, take the minimum average yearly price of held assets. Tricky things like privately held companies, maybe we solve that one later, but even then there are valuations made at various points, anchor to those, be conservative in every case. If the gov primarily exists to enforce property rights... then people should pay in proportion to the rights that are being enforced on their behalf.
> Tricky things like privately held companies, maybe we solve that one later
So I spend 30 minutes to set up an LLC and then transfer my assets to that LLC. Now, I don't hold the assets; I hold a stake in a privately-held company.
Ultimately, the solution you come up with needs to be at least somewhat airtight; otherwise, it just penalizes people who spend less money on tax advisors. The generation of income is a fairly well-defined point where assets change hands and you can apply some quasi-clear rules. Ongoing taxes on the potential to make money are a lot harder. So I buy some gold bars or valuable paintings and stash them in the attic. Gold / Picasso appreciates. How do you tax me on that? Do I submit an inventory of everything I own to the government every year? How does the government check - do they get to rifle through my stuff every December?
And hey, here's a cool one: if my parent owns a company and puts it in their will that it's mine when they die, is that promise an asset I owe taxes on every year? It's clearly worth something: it's potential money down the line.
> So I spend 30 minutes to set up an LLC and then transfer my assets to that LLC. Now, I don't hold the assets; I hold a stake in a privately-held company.
Beneficial ownership is a well established concept in law, and this strategy simply would not work. If those assets are easily valued and liquid (stocks or whatever) then the taxes will just end up being passed through as the entity won’t be relevant for tax purposes. Sure you could try to hide assets or offshore them or whatever but you’d be running headlong into outright tax fraud at that point.
You would probably instead see less new public companies, more companies/divisions being sold to various groups under opaque structures and taken private, and a lot more weird borderline legal transactions done between private parties to pretend valuation of private companies or other assets are lower than reality.
> Gold / Picasso appreciates. How do you tax me on that? Do I submit an inventory of everything I own to the government every year? How does the government check - do they get to rifle through my stuff every December?
Yes, of course you would owe taxes on such things assuming they were over whatever exemption limits and such. The government can’t realistically check everyone. They just throw the more obvious offenders in prison when found and keep enough background “random audits” to keep folks scared enough into compliance.
And obviously the government has been making “hiding” such assets harder every year with the ratcheting up of KYC/AML laws. Over time you’d see these requirements for pretty much every major on/offramp for such assets like gold bullion dealers, coin shops, or auctions. A lot already are required to verify your identity and even report transactions. There is no more showing up to a car dealer and paying for a new car with a duffel bag full of cash, much less anonymously. Such a transaction is reported and you’d see this simply expand.
Property taxes exist at least in part because the asset is impossible to hide and more difficult than most to play games with valuation.
> And hey, here's a cool one: if my parent owns a company and puts it in their will that it's mine when they die, is that promise an asset I owe taxes on every year? It's clearly worth something: it's potential money down the line.
Presumably your parents would already be paying the wealth taxes owed on the asset in question. That someone might loan you money against a future inheritance seems immaterial but perhaps I’m missing something here?
If you properly taxed real estate in a progressive way, you wouldn't have to bother with taxing paper wealth at all---the collective value of paper is already reflected in the price of land. People with large paper fortunes inevitably buy real estate, and when they do, their paper wealth inflates the price. This is why median residential housing prices have dramatically outpaced median wage increases, along with anything else tied to real estate, like sports and concert tickets.
Let’s do the bog-standard obvious and sane thing and pick a single point in time, once a year and use the value then. Maybe, i don’t know, close of market on the last trading day of the year. At which point it won’t fluctuate again until the new tax year. Then, we can call it “mark to market” because we’re marking the value to the market at a point in time.
Finally, we stop with silly bad faith arguments because fluctuations in stock have been successful taxed for decades. This is how day-traders pay taxes, and it’s not even a little challenging to do.
A friend of mine, a few years ago, had his stock options vest. He didn't sell the stocks. The stocks tanked a few months later. The IRS said he owed income tax on the value of the stocks when they vested.
He owed more tax than his net worth, lost his house, everything, and wound up in a trailer.
He never saw the money he was taxed on.
> bad faith arguments
A person's net worth can have wild gyrations on a daily basis. It's not unusual for a stock to move 10% in a few hours. MSFT dropped something like a third of its value last year. What something is "worth" is an utterly arbitrary notion, and basing taxes on that is inevitably unfair an inequitable. (A lot of effort
and handwaving is done by accountants trying to guess at what something is "worth".) Heck, what is your house "worth"? Do you agree with the tax assessor? I once told the assessor that if he believed my house was worth what he assessed it at, I'd sell it to him at a 10% discount and he can flip it for what he thought it was worth. He wouldn't take the deal.
With taxes on income, that is fairly well understood and can be accounted for to the dollar.
So your friend had a large taxable event occur, ignored any advice that such tax event would persist over the tax year, and failed to act at any time to address his tax shortfall. Sounds like he had a shit tax/financial advisor. And to consume all of his net worth etc, the number of options that vested must have been quite large.
Not going to be sympathetic to someone YOLO'ing their compensation/taxes.
Not an issue. If you trade section 1256 contracts, the current tax code already requires you to report unrealized gains by calculating the gains as if they are sold on the last day of the tax year. Brokers have no issues calculating that and reporting that single number to the IRS.
There is a reason in capitalism we have anti-monopoly law or preventing dumping prices because those often leads to monopoly. So yes for sure you can kill your competition by just dumping money and loosing profits.
That also assumes the monopolized market is profitable enough to pay for the dumping, but right now we are still questioning if LLMs have such high value on the market. Yeah its great for programming, but is the majority of the population benefitted enough to all start paying for access lke many investors expect? Someone might have looked at the low cost and massive lifting capacity of hydrogen balloons in the past and seen a lot of potential profit but if investors had dumped money to monopolize the hydrogen balloon market they would have lost their ass.
it's nondeterministic because we chosen it by having higher 'temperature' in settings. I bet if you run open weights model with temperature 0 and on the same device the same prompt and turn off parallelism you will have more deterministic result (excluding some floating point operations).
This is very simplistic and I would say there is more reason than only consumerism. People still might have kids they just have it less - they are happy to have only one kid because they fill fulfilled and also they cannot afford 2 or 3.
Standard and expectation also increased and even thought I grew up with 2 siblings in 2 bedroom apartment in Poland today nobody would want that - or good luck finding a partner that want that. You would expect to have house or at least 3-4 bedroom apartment to raise 3 kids.
Today also probably you need 2 cars instead of 1 family car because your partner also have to work. You probably also need extra money for babysitter or kinder garden because again your partner is working and probably less likely your parents nearby to help since most young people had to move to big cities to get a job.
The things you list as ostensibly different from consumerism are for the most part consequences and manifestations of consumerism. They are downstream from the consumerist ethos. So these are superficial distinctions.
Inquire into the causes. For example, why do people say they can't afford more children? Materially, we're the wealthiest we've ever been in human history. We are in the best possible position in human history to afford more children. The problem is that we have different priorities. Consumerism shifts our valuations.
Consider also the parabolic distribution of fertility. Who is having the most children and the least in developed consumerist countries? The poor and the rich are having the most. The rich, because within the consumerist calculus, the cost of raising children are minuscule as a fraction of their total wealth, even given their high material standards. The poor, because they can't compete in the consumerist game anyway (social programs that enable the poor to have more children, and perhaps a greater average religiosity, are also contributing factors; the latter shifts valuation).
The people having the fewest number of children are the middle class, because the middle class has just enough money to gain access to the fruits consumerism offers, but not enough to accommodate both the consumerist indulgence of them and large families.
This is where "keeping up with the Joneses" is most prevalent. This is where you find the most careerism; the poor don't have careers, and the rich don't need them. The middle class - perhaps especially the upper middle class - is in the fierce competition for marginal and petty gains of status over their middle class peers, and in a consumerist society, that is tied to spending on things other than what enables a family to have more children (costs whose growth, by the way, is logarithmic, not linear). The upper middle class is also perhaps best equipped to craft elaborate rationalizations for their lack of fecundity.
So you have to look at things systematically and in a systemic way.
I think you are collapsing too many different causes into a single explanation.
Yes, consumerism probably influences expectations and lifestyles. But many of the things I mentioned are not just superficial manifestations of consumerism - they are structural economic and social changes.
When people say they "cannot afford" more children, they usually do not mean literal starvation or inability to keep a child alive. They mean they cannot afford the living standard that modern society effectively requires or expects for a family with multiple children.
I mentioned, in Poland when I was growing up, it was normal for 3 kids to share a small apartment and for grandparents to help raise children. Today, many young adults had to move to larger cities for education and work, far away from their families. That removes a major support system.
Now both parents usually need to work, which creates additional costs: larger housing near jobs, childcare, kindergarten, transportation, often even a second car. These are not just luxury consumerist indulgences but practical requirements of modern urban life.
> Materially, we're the wealthiest we've ever been in human history.
But wealth being higher on average does not mean family formation became easier for the middle class. Housing costs in major cities relative to income are a huge factor, especially for people who are not poor enough to qualify for assistance and not rich enough to comfortably absorb the costs.
> Sorry, I'm a bit tired of acting like Germany only got the history of being on the west side of the iron curtain. It got both treatments.
Well glass that has half of water is still better that glass fully empty. Poland didn't get any war reparations and after being more destroyed during the war than germany (warsaw burned to the ground) and pretty much occupied for many decades after the war then how polish companies supposed to compete with any western economy including germany?
You think this is fantastic deal only because they use similar like tricks where they inflate the price and tell you something supposed to cost $1000 but they have this today promo for $100.
I was there too and paying for a while. Few weeks ago I tried DeepSeek V4 Pro - expected its gonna be shit but its actually pretty good.
The deal is I pay daily ~$1 for DSV4-pro for ~100M API token usage. And they probably not getting broke because >90% of those token in practice is cache read and they very well optimized for that.
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