It will be interesting to see how this pans out for developers that stay in the UK, like myself. It's too hard a call it either way. In the current anti-immigration climate I can't see the UK tech industry competing as well as it has been.
the only thing that is likely to halt is the unrestricted freedom of movement for EU workers
the view amongst the UK electorate is not and has never been "all immigration is bad", surveys reveal that a majority of the UK electorate actually support an increase in migration of highly skilled workers
they simply perceive unskilled migration to be a problem, and within the EU there is no ability to control it
as a result: for the highly skilled from other parts of the world it will likely become easier and cheaper to migrate to the UK (and the government has been making noises to this effect)
As an european tech, I don't really care about whaetherthe british electorate thinks I'm the kind of cattle they want or not. I simply don't want to live in a society that will accept or reject me based on my utility value.
It's petty, but when I left the most satisfying thing was knowing that an ungrateful system no longer receives my above average tax contribution, let alone benefit from my work in other ways.
Having an above average tax contribution, simply means you earned more than average. The fact that you now flip on something so trivial, doesn't that just mean you were always a liability?
What do you want to be judged on? A majority of those British wanting more immigration control are struggling, you judge them from a position of relative comfort; You are relatively immune to the same concerns.
> majority of those British wanting more immigration control are struggling, you judge them from a position of relative comfort
They're not being judged by officialdom on whether they get to live in the UK and freely move around it. They're only being "judged" in the sense of having the negative opinion of someone on the internet. Big difference.
Maybe we should be questioning migration control on a more local scale? 200k people move to London every year. If London decided to end UK free movement, only allowing skilled professionals in, it could solve the London housing crisis! /s
(That sounds absurd, but was in fact done to the Ugandan Asians who had their UK citizenship removed by act of Parliament)
A bigger difference is that these are two entirely different things. I mean "judge" entirely in the sense of negative personal judgement, not immigration status. And since I'm addressing you here, and your own comment, I'm not sure why that matters.
> If London decided to end UK free movement, only allowing skilled professionals in, it could solve the London housing crisis!
London already has defacto movement control with high rent and living costs.
Will the free movement work both ways (No southerners migrating to the North without permit)? Will tax and governmental control be localised too? How will that work given historical investment in any area common property to the country?
Why do you consider a comparison within a country is valid as with other countries? If that's your angle - why is it fair non-EU countries excluded from free moment?
I did not judge anyone in this message. I merely explained that when Brexiters say they're not against economically sound migration, they miss the point: it's not about rejecting people, it's about making people not want to come in the first place.
> as a result: for the highly skilled from other parts of the world it will likely become easier and cheaper to migrate to the UK (and the government has been making noises to this effect)
The government has been making 'noises to the effect' that it is concerned about the net migration number and bringing this down to the 'tens of thousands' [1]. This doesn't seem to distinguish between skilled and unskilled, it's just about reducing the headline number.
If you've ever tried to employ someone on a UK visa you'll know why business, charities and academia are distraught about this. Even if you have no qualified UK applicants whatsoever you have to spend a lot of time and money fighting with UKBA papermill who reject applications on the slightest error. It would be fine if decisions were timely (like within a few weeks rather than years) or defective applications could be amended but the problem is the system is broken and deliberately so. Politicians have no incentive to fix it because that would increase immigration numbers for a year or two and thus they make it the next guys problem and broken it stays.
> for the highly skilled from other parts of the world it will likely become easier and cheaper to migrate to the UK (and the government has been making noises to this effect)
(As it stands, they propose to limit it to "tens of thousands" including students, which means either the collapse of UK education exports or a virtual end to worker immigration)
'the view amongst the UK electorate is not and has never been "all immigration is bad"'
So why the fascination with net migration figures and the desire by some elements to have "one in one out"?
Edit: I do tend to worry that post Brexit there will be no reduction in net migration figures and there will be a resurgence of support for the far right who want to deliver on no immigration at all.
I suspect that more of a press obsession with pretty graphs and dramatic pronouncements than actual public interest. Give the press something more interesting to talk about and it'll pretty soon leave the front page.
The British public think a good trade deal with the EU is more important than cutting immigration when negotiating Brexit [0].
Remember that about 20% of the leavers are 'liberal leavers' - they are pro-migration. Once you add this group to the remainers it's clear that a minority of anti-immigration voters shouldn't decide politics for everybody else.
> Overall, the Swedish press was the most positive towards refugees and migrants, while coverage in the United Kingdom was the most negative, and the most polarised. Amongst those countries surveyed, Britain’s right-wing media was uniquely aggressively in its campaigns against refugees and migrants
[...]
> The discussion of refugees and migrants as a cultural threat or a threat to community cohesion was most prevalent in the British press (10.8%), followed by Swedish (8.2%), Italian (8.1%), Spanish (7.4%) and German (5.3%) newspapers. Another noticeable finding was the high incidence of threats to welfare/health systems in the UK press (18.3%) which was much higher than the other countries in the sample (Sweden 11.4%, 7.9% Germany, 7.3% Italy, 6.7% Spain). The prevalence of negative refugee frames could also be seen in the greater tendency for the British press to link refugees and migrants to crime (8.2%) than in other countries (Italy 4.3%, Germany 3.7%, Italy 2.6%, Spain 1.7%)
[...]
> In contrast, coverage in the United Kingdom was the most negative. Despite the presence of newspapers such as the Guardian and Daily Mirror, both of which were sympathetic to refugees, the right-wing press in the United Kingdom expressed a hostility towards refugees and migrants which was unique. Whilst newspapers in all countries featured anti-refugee and anti-migrant perspectives, what distinguished the right of centre press in the UK was the degree to which that section of the press campaigned aggressively against refugees and migrants. This could be seen in the preponderance of negative frames and the editorialising in favour of Fortress Europe approaches.
The other element of this is that highly skilled EU worker would demand higher salaries than those from non-EU countries. How this will affect British workers is again hard to call.
> It will be interesting to see how this pans out for developers that stay in the UK
Positive side: Less tech people = more money (which already has happened IMO, although maybe that's simply because accounting in big companies is in USD). Negative side: Less tech people...
EU techies have already started to move away. And some of the UK companies I've kept in touch with are really struggling to hire now. Personally, I'd always take a good office atmosphere/culture over more pay and a less skilled team.
As for non-EU techies, judging from one of our co-workers, getting a UK visa is horribly complicated. Don't think they'll make up the numbers fast.
Another issue that remains to be seen how UK will handle it, is that all EU related projects cannot be delivered from non-EU countries without a data agreement in place.
So those projects being delivered from UK either need to move into a EU country or start ramping up EU compliant data agreements.
Even if some jobs leave, if you're above average you'll probably be okay. You'll always need techies, and they'll always be business cases where techies in the country are needed, or where businesses need it done right now. Still not a great atmosphere though...
To be fair we're already experiencing the beginnings of "Less tech people = more money"; the contract job I've just started hired me due to the "staffing adjustment" of some of their European coders.
The result is £925 a day for me, which in east midlands UK is a very tasty morsel.
May I talk to you to know about how can I find such opportunitiy?
I am looking to move to London, and want to evaluate my options.
May you email me: skfix at outlook.com
There are some specific circumstances surrounding what I'm doing, so consider £925 as an ultra-rare, not-in-any-way indicative dayrate. To be fair even in London that would be high, though I know some fintech consultants can get that and more. And legacy language guys.
In summary I'm a SaaS guy, being used to replace 3 Europeans who aren't likely to be there long-term to continue to build the product beyond its initial launch. My (albeit extortionate) day rate is less than their 3 combined, so it made sense for the company. Right place right time for me.
For colour, from your perspective: if you can get £500 a day in London that's not bad at all, up here in the East Midlands (I'm near Nottingham) I can get £350 to £400 a day, though I would normally trade some back for work flexibility (I prefer to work less than 8 hours a day).
Make sure your phone number is on your CV, and get it on Jobsite, Monster, Reed, TotalJobs, etc. Make sure you've ticked whatever box allows these profiles to be publicly viewable by recruiters.
Then wait a couple of days for the Recruiters' automated search systems to index your CV. You'll start getting phone calls about positions soon after.
I've been hoping contract day rates would go up too. But 925 in the East Mids is amazing. I'm intruiged - would you mind emailing (see profile) some details?
Same thoughts here, but we stand to come off well in any case. The less programming talent being allowed in, the more we can demand. I'm preparing to move on from one contract and going to see if I can triple the rate for the next one.
I think you are absolutely wrong, just because of who writes the post. Minutes prior to reading this post, i was looking at Kaggle ( datasets and some competitions), for statistic analysis.
Mehul Patel ( who wrote this post), was COO at Kaggle ( i must admit, this is a unbelievable coincidence)
I think that someone who worked at Kaggle can get pretty accurate results from datasets. I think referring this as "just a blog post" severly ignores the effort that has been put into it.
"In light of Brexit, have you considered moving to work in another country?"
70% said yes. I'm sure a lot of people, in all industries, and even before Brexit, have considered this, especially when it's been raining for a fortnight or there have been particularly annoying Tube strikes. But there's a big difference between considering doing something and actually doing it.
Anecdotally I know a few non-Brits living in London who had been weighing back and forth whether they should move for a while and Brexit was the thing the tipped them into action.
So Brexit in isolation might not be the sole reason many people move, but it will no doubt affect a few people who where already considering their options.
Anecdotal: I moved to London for my first software engineering job nine months ago. The week after I signed my contract, the country voted Leave and my salary was literally worth $15k USD less overnight.
I'm going back to the US in two weeks for a new job. I'll be making roughly 66% more. Sure, part of that has to do with the fact that I have experience now. But dev salaries in London weren't great compared to the US even when the pound was strong.
Honestly, Europe's best hope for keeping tech talent from going to the US may be Donald Trump cracking down on visas.
But the pound is still stronger than the dollar, brexit hasn't changed that. Americans get paid more sure, but the cost of living is ridiculously higher, and you also have to basically take out another mortgage to afford your health service. Not to mention the work ethic is a lot worse in the US, you can expect to spend a lot more time in the office over there.
I have lived in London for 10 years, had my own house. I have lived in the EU as well.
Having lived in the US for 3 years, and in various states.
Here's what I found.
America Pros.
They get paid much more, and yes they work more hours. Which if done right, can lead to promotions and networking. Networking which leads to entrepreneurial-ship.
They have a much larger access to other entrepreneurs and entrepreneurial ecosystem.
They have more readily available ways of earning money. Earning $100 a day with a laptop in star bucks is possible. Much more opportunity.
They enjoy a much lower cost of living. Electricity, petrol (gas), food, takeaways, alcohol is much lower. Lets not forget taxes as well!
They enjoy much larger living accommodations compared to europeans and for less money.
They have better cell phone plans, with free calls and texts.
They have better access to weather. You can enjoy a nice climate in San Diego, spend hot summers in Southern Florida, or you can snow board in Utah for the winter.
Finally, they have much better social mobility in the US. In 12-18 months you can go from being broke living in a car. To being a millionaire.
America Cons.
Yes, health-care is higher.
UK Pros.
Better access to Healthcare.
Internet is cheaper and faster.
4 Weeks paid vacation time.
---------
America is an awesome place. It offers so many opportunities than other countries. It's something that you really can't get from a posting. You truly have to experience it. Then you'll get it.
> They have better cell phone plans, with free calls and texts.
The US has awful phone plans. You can get unlimited data in the UK for less than 25 a month. You can get 'enough' data for most people (2-3gb) for a tenner on pay as you go. Back when I was living in the US it was practically impossible to get away with paying less than 35-40$/month for anything with a reasonable amount of data and I haven't heard any news about this having changed recently.
Also do not underestimate vacation time. In my experience most companies in the UK give you around 5. I am on 6 weeks currently. It's great earning more money but if you have no time to actually use that money then that defeats the purpose a little bit in my opinion.
While I generally agree with you that America is an awesome place (if you can look past the income inequality), the weather argument does not stand. Let me repeat your sentence in European terms:
They have better access to weather. You can enjoy a nice climate in central Italy, spend hot summers in Southern Spain, or you can snow board in French Alps for the winter.
For the EU, each country has it's own marketplaces, own stores, own food cuisines, own ways of doing things. Why? Because they still have their own national identity.
In America it's one language, a Walmart in Utah is the same Walmart in Florida, same for Tacobell or Golden Corral. Why? Because it's just one country.
Until you start moving to the United States of Europe. Both experiences won't be the same.
London is as expensive as New York, where I'm moving. In fact, I will be paying roughly the same rent: $950 before bills in NYC, £850 including bills in London. In both cases I'm around 30 minutes from the city center.
My company is providing health insurance. I will be working the same hours. The biggest difference benefit-wise is that I get ten days less paid vacation (15 vs 25)--but I mostly used my vacation to visit New York.
A dev job in Indianapolis (or anywhere else between the coasts except Chicago) would pay what I make in London and the cost of living would be halved.
£850 is quite expensive for London (not outrageous, but above average). Most are more in line with £650-£750 for a reasonable double room in a 2 bed flat share. You can get cheaper if you share with more or go further out / to less desirable areas.
Source: I live and work in London and have done so for the last 5 1/2 years
> But the pound is still stronger than the dollar, brexit hasn't changed that. Americans get paid more sure, but the cost of living is ridiculously higher, and you also have to basically take out another mortgage to afford your health service.
Most tech jobs have good health insurance. At the moment 1 GBP ~ 1.3 USD. I think a (good?) salary for somebody out of uni is ~30k GBP, and ~120k USD. For a software dev with a few years of experience it's maybe ~45k GPB vs ~200k USD (total comp). And depending on where you are in the US, you might be paying less tax.
A few more hours and some soul-crushing meetings doesn't seem so bad considering you can do it for a few years, come back and buy a house - in cash. Of course, you might find you enjoy it and you stay... ironically that's how I ended up living in the UK for 7 years.
You're a bit low on the salary front. I started at £44k (including bonus) with no experience; Senior dev roles here that I've seen seem to be around £65k.
Of course it still doesn't compare to a Silicon Valley or New York dev salary.
> Europe's best hope for keeping tech talent from going to the US may be Donald Trump cracking down on visas.
The opposite could happen. The spamable H-1B lottery where you're left in suspense for months to maybe get an H-1B sucks for you and the sponsoring company. But if e.g. the H-1B minimum salary is raised, you might actually see an increase in Europeans coming over. (I believe the DHS & TSA is doing far more to keep us out than Trump :P)
If you're strongly motivated by money, London is probably the worst choice for taking a permanent job (unless you have enough experience to make a nice 6 figures salary and all that).
That's the biggest issue for the UK attracting tech talent. Compared to other countries, the salaries on offer just are not that enticing compared other big hubs.
I've seen the prediction, which I think is tremendously plausible, that there won't be a "big bang" Brexit disaster, but over a decade or so we'll forget that the UK used to be more prosperous than France or the Republic of Ireland, and it will start to become more normal for young people rather than moving to London to get jobs, start applying for work visas in the rest of Europe.
It's the only way to get net migration down: persuade people to emigrate by depriving them of economic opportunity.
Edit: note that people who are married to EU nationals do not automatically get the right for their spouse to remain, so I expect a few hundred thousand people to be forced to emigrate for that reason.
If you think the EU is a cage, but requiring visas for the continent is freedom, what really are the bars of the cage?
I'm a Scottish nationalist, and as such have learned that shouting "freedom!" out of context gets you ridiculed. It has to be freedom to/of some things specific and valuable.
AFAIK no employment laws or freedom to move rights for EU citizens in UK has changed yet?
So this is the effect of what people expect there to happen wrt. EU and UK in the future. Judging from the numbers the effect is quite strong but obviously also something that may change quickly once the arrangement between EU and UK after brexit is fully settled.
Even if no law has changed the fear of a hard Brexit might lead people to not risk their family to move to the UK and then been thrown out.
And yes, there's a possibility that a usable agreement comes out at some point in time, but by then companies might have decided not to wait, but move to the continent. Thus giving this a longer-term impact.
It doesn't include anything other than percentages or their sources, no total numbers.
We have no way of knowing how statistically significant it is.
The post also bundles EU and non-EU candidates into "foreign candidates" which distorts the picture as a whole.
What has historically been a system which favours EU candidates over other International ones has now been leveled.