Hacker Newsnew | past | comments | ask | show | jobs | submitlogin

"If you're 15 years into that research and you think there is a chance that you'll reach a breakthrough in 5 years, you're much more inclined to want...to pursue it for 5 more years rather than starting over."

How is that not sunk-cost fallacy?



An example of what I'm describing is:

Decision A: 5 years (after 15 already spent) = 75% chance of success

Decision B: 20 years (after 0 already spent) = 10% chance of success

In that scenario, Decision A (sticking with your current research) is more rational as long as your estimate of your chance of success is accurate. We know from the article that this is not true -- their estimates were wrong.

The sunk-cost fallacy would apply for something like:

Decision A: 20 years (after 15 already spent) = 10% chance of success

Decision B: 20 years (after 0 already spent) = 10% chance of success

Since both A and B have the same cost and same likelihood of success, you should not consider the time you've already spent. Most humans would, though.


I would say that this is an example of the planning fallacy.




Guidelines | FAQ | Lists | API | Security | Legal | Apply to YC | Contact

Search: