I'd also add https://tldroptions.io/ as a quick and dirty potential options valuator. That being said, I agree with the author's default assumption that private options should be valued at zero, especially for financial planning purposes. At the same time, it is this hockey stick that is a strong part of the allure of smaller startups. There's an entirely separate levels.fyi equivalent that needs to be made for the amount of equity employees get at various stages of a company. It should also note that the size size of the exit is inversely proportional to the odds that it'll happen.