Virgin Galactic only does LEO hops that last for ~10 minutes. SpaceX has actually sent a rocket in orbit around the earth and are on track to send successive launches to the ISS in 2012 and 2013. Just 'cause it looks like an Apollo design; there's a reason why they were chosen in the first place. It's cause they're simple and pretty reliable.

Also, I wouldn't bet against Elon Musk.