It's going to be really interesting to see how things shake out in the coming Fall/Winter if Europe can't immediately ramp up some
L̶N̶G̶ natural gas production or figure out where it's going to buy some. Regardless, I'd prepare for some serious price hikes for L̶N̶G̶ natural gas.
Before the war broke out in Ukraine I had no idea how much Europe depended on Russia for L̶N̶G̶ natural gas, and it's honestly pretty scary considering how much residential heating is dependent upon it. You can survive without gasoline to drive around in your car - but the vast majority of Europeans need heat in the Winter.
I'm imaging some WW2-style "Set your thermostats lower! More than 62 degrees and you're on Putin's side!" propaganda if the conflict continues into late 2022.
1) Petroleum is an input into so many other things besides transportation, and;
2) Transportation is, to varying degrees, a significant variable in most countries' GDP. It's probably most extreme in the US, in terms of the GDP being a linear function heavily rooted in vehicle-miles travelled, but to some extent that's going to apply to any developed country.
So no, you really can't go without gasoline, nor adopt blasé indifference to oil prices. They pervade just about every facet of modern life; plastics are derived from petrochemicals, fertiliser, you name it.
You're absolutely correct. I guess I meant that when push comes to shove and Europe needs to decide what to do with the Petroleum it does have, it can dedicate to energy production and industry essential to function, and limit the amount available to consumers (think gas rations in the 70s), but it's harder to limit natural gas that is used by people to keep them alive in the winter. My fear is not "will the economy in Europe survive a lack of oil?" but is actually "Will Europe have enough natural gas to keep people from freezing in the Winter?" But yes, petroleum is essential as well.
And there's 0 chance any LNG terminals get built as a response to this situation by the next winter - especially in Europe. Building a terminal near here was on the order of a decade with all the planning, and a lot of protesting form people in the region (you are building a port for liquified natural gas after all).
Even if they decide to build additional capacity the last thing you want to do is cut corners.
Also, pipeline capacity to Boston, one of the bigger LNG ports in the east coast was blocked by environmental activists.
Makes me wonder if the post-Fukushima hysteria that inspired German nuclear shutdowns and at least one major US nuclear reactor was influenced from abroad.
I was under that impression as well. But I believe in a form of Efficient Analyst Hypothesis where, if this LNG terminal capacity were in any way significant, it would have surely been mentioned in industry circles and press. ;-)
Before the war broke out in Ukraine I had no idea how much Europe depended on Russia for L̶N̶G̶ natural gas, and it's honestly pretty scary considering how much residential heating is dependent upon it. You can survive without gasoline to drive around in your car - but the vast majority of Europeans need heat in the Winter.
I'm imaging some WW2-style "Set your thermostats lower! More than 62 degrees and you're on Putin's side!" propaganda if the conflict continues into late 2022.