one thing you quickly learn from pursuing an academic topic more deeply than surface level is that you often can't trust your perfect-model-based intuition to be correct. I think this is where the Dunning-Kruger effect comes from: people who haven't learned about how their intuitive reasoning is wrong in a specific field, taking a look at it and just saying "oh, it's obvious". For some reason (not sure if it's systemic or just my perception) this seems especially common among STEM-oriented people, and especially directed towards soft sciences and the humanities.

The efficient market hypothesis seems like a perfect example of this over-reliance on assuming paper-thin idealised models actually reflect reality.