This makes a common error in the direction of a causal arrow:
Technological progress is the result of ready access to fossil fuels. That is it is the result of our prosperity not it's cause.
The reason Malthus was wrong was because ready access to hydrocarbons made the Haber-Bosch process possible and easily scalable. In a world without massive amount of hydrocarbons the Haber-Bosch process is never discovered. We know this because technological advancement trail energy discovery.
I highly recommend reading through Smil's Energy and Civilization to get a better sense of this.
We are like yeast brewing in a giant vat of malted barely, seeing a what looks like an infinite amount of energy, expanding well beyond the sustainable carrying capacity of the vat. Suddenly some yeast scientists notice there is a concerning amount of alcohol in the atmosphere. Yeast economist point out this is nothing to worry about because we have solved every problem in the past, so there's nothing to really worry about.
I also can't stand the "look Malthus, Hubert and Jevons were all wrong!!!", on the scale of a 200k year species, predicted the ended within a few hundred years is pretty accurate. We just have trouble thinking beyond the time scale of a few human generations.
Finally, whale oil is a terrible example of a transition fuel. We stopped using it because we ran out of whales, but so far we've never decreased usage of an energy source that was still available to us [0]. This is no different than yeast that will consume energy filled sugars until the poison themselves. But hey, at least we get beer.
Climate change is a political problem, not a technology problem.
The technology to move beyond fossil fuels has existed since the 1950s. No new inventions are required. If our leaders decided today to migrate primary energy to nuclear power climate change would be "solved" within 20 years.
> If our leaders decided today to migrate primary energy to nuclear power climate change would be "solved" within 20 years.
I think this is inaccurate for several reasons
1. it takes human and financial resources to build a nuclear power plants, which most countries don't have
2. using the current technologies, uranium would quickly become a limiting factor
3. developing new technologies take times.
4. electricity is only a small part of the emissions of CO2
> Climate change is a political problem
Yes, this comes from the perpetual growth ideology.
This makes a common error in the direction of a causal arrow:
Technological progress is the result of ready access to fossil fuels. That is it is the result of our prosperity not it's cause.
I have also read Smil's Energy and Civilization and I have to disagree on the causal arrow direction.
Coal formed ~300 million years ago [1]. Anatomically modern humans have existed for more than 200,000 years [2]. Complex city-forming civilizations have existed for more than 5,000 years [3].
Chapter 6 of Energy and Civilization shows the dramatic shift in recent centuries: consumption of coal and later other fossil fuels underwent explosive growth only after the 18th century. This even though coal and oil were known to people thousands of years ago [4] [5]. Since people, fossil fuels, and civilization have existed in conjunction for several thousands of years, but usage of fossil fuels has become significant only in recent centuries, I believe that technological development is the proximate cause of fossil fuel usage. Once the early Industrial Revolution got under way it formed a feedback loop where technological exploitation of energy resources drove further technological development and energy exploitation. The early, inefficient Newcomen steam engine is a good example of this loop in action: its first successful application was in pumping water out of coal mines, to make more coal accessible [6].
Technological progress is the result of ready access to fossil fuels. That is it is the result of our prosperity not it's cause.
The reason Malthus was wrong was because ready access to hydrocarbons made the Haber-Bosch process possible and easily scalable. In a world without massive amount of hydrocarbons the Haber-Bosch process is never discovered. We know this because technological advancement trail energy discovery.
I highly recommend reading through Smil's Energy and Civilization to get a better sense of this.
We are like yeast brewing in a giant vat of malted barely, seeing a what looks like an infinite amount of energy, expanding well beyond the sustainable carrying capacity of the vat. Suddenly some yeast scientists notice there is a concerning amount of alcohol in the atmosphere. Yeast economist point out this is nothing to worry about because we have solved every problem in the past, so there's nothing to really worry about.
I also can't stand the "look Malthus, Hubert and Jevons were all wrong!!!", on the scale of a 200k year species, predicted the ended within a few hundred years is pretty accurate. We just have trouble thinking beyond the time scale of a few human generations.
Finally, whale oil is a terrible example of a transition fuel. We stopped using it because we ran out of whales, but so far we've never decreased usage of an energy source that was still available to us [0]. This is no different than yeast that will consume energy filled sugars until the poison themselves. But hey, at least we get beer.
0. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-energy-substitutio...