Doesn't matter if "the Russians are behind it" - the Swedish government still allowed the Quran burning. Let me repeat that - the Swedish government was well aware about this "protest" and still allowed it to happen knowing very well how Turkey would react to it. Do you really believe allowing some religious book to be burnt was more important for them than joining NATO (which apparently they need to because of national security)!? The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the Swedes aren't serious about joining NATO, yet.
If the Swedes were serious about joining NATO, they could have pressured the protestor to do his Quran burning after Sweden had become a member. But instead, they allowed it to happen even though they knew how Turkey would react. And this isn't an "Erdogan" issue. There is genuine outrage among the Turkish population about this incident and it will be very hard for any Turkish politician to overcome the public animosity against Sweden. That means Turkey will not support Sweden becoming a NATO member.