> What the naysayers always miss is exponential growth.
Exponential growth isn’t _normal_, tho. I think that Moore’s Law has messed us up a bit, honestly; there is a tendency to expect _everything_ to behave that way. And so far, with LLMs, it just doesn’t seem to be happening. When you double the compute, you double the amazingness of the LLM, right? Well, actually, no; based on current results there’s little reason to think that, and if that doesn’t hold your exponential growth is in _serious_ doubt.
> but also because the market is anticipating huge advancements in model ability
Markets anticipate all sorts of things which never, in the end, happen, remember.
> Current models are limited, but future models are world-changing
See, this is why people draw the comparison to blockchain stuff. “Yeah, the current thing’s a bit shit, but just wait for the next one. In the meantime, can I convince you to invest a hundred million in my robot tax advisor?”
> and we have every reason to believe models will continue to scale in this way.
Do we? I mean, to me it looks like it has clearly slowed down, already.
Exponential growth isn’t _normal_, tho. I think that Moore’s Law has messed us up a bit, honestly; there is a tendency to expect _everything_ to behave that way. And so far, with LLMs, it just doesn’t seem to be happening. When you double the compute, you double the amazingness of the LLM, right? Well, actually, no; based on current results there’s little reason to think that, and if that doesn’t hold your exponential growth is in _serious_ doubt.
> but also because the market is anticipating huge advancements in model ability
Markets anticipate all sorts of things which never, in the end, happen, remember.
> Current models are limited, but future models are world-changing
See, this is why people draw the comparison to blockchain stuff. “Yeah, the current thing’s a bit shit, but just wait for the next one. In the meantime, can I convince you to invest a hundred million in my robot tax advisor?”
> and we have every reason to believe models will continue to scale in this way.
Do we? I mean, to me it looks like it has clearly slowed down, already.