I'm not sure what the amount of computer time spent on training the models has to do with anything, the article states it "is the best predictor of broad AI capabilities we have" without attempting to defend the claim. The "humies" (to use a dated term) benchmarks are interesting but clearly not super indicative of real world performance--one merely has to interact with one of these LLMs to find their (often severe) limitations, and it's not clear at all that more computer time spent on training will actually make them better.
EDIT: re: the computer time metric, by the same token shouldn't block chains have changed the world by now if computer time is the predictor of success? It makes sense for the industry proponents of LLMs to focus on this metric, because ultimately that's what they sell. Microsoft, NVidia, Google, Amazon, etc all benefit astronomically from computationally intensive fads, be it chatbot parlor tricks or NFTs. And the industry at large does as well--a rising tide lifts all boats. It's not at all obvious any of this is worth something directly, though.
> I'm not sure what the amount of computer time spent on training the models has to do with anything
Fair enough. What do you think is driving the uptick of AI performance and why don't you think it will be correlated with the amount of compute invested?
The limitations business looks like a red herring. Being flawed and limited doesn't even disqualify an AI from being super-intelligent (whatever that might mean). Humans are remarkably flawed and limited, it takes a lot of setup to get them to a point where they can behave intelligently.
> EDIT: re: the computer time metric, by the same token shouldn't block chains have changed the world by now if computer time is the predictor of success?
That seems like it would be a defensible claim if you wanted to make it. One of the trends I keep an eye on is that log(price) is similar to the trend in log(hash rate) for Bitcoin. I don't think it is relevant though because Bitcoin isn't an AI system.
EDIT: re: the computer time metric, by the same token shouldn't block chains have changed the world by now if computer time is the predictor of success? It makes sense for the industry proponents of LLMs to focus on this metric, because ultimately that's what they sell. Microsoft, NVidia, Google, Amazon, etc all benefit astronomically from computationally intensive fads, be it chatbot parlor tricks or NFTs. And the industry at large does as well--a rising tide lifts all boats. It's not at all obvious any of this is worth something directly, though.