IMO, realistically, AI Safety isn't about killer robots. It's about another Therac 25 Incident because someone vibe coded a radiology machine and didn't know how the code worked.
Or someone gave an agent insane levels of permissions to use a tool that impacts the physical world, and the agent started pressing dangerous buttons during a reasoning loop (not because it has intent to kill humans)
There are a bunch of mundane AI Safety risks that don't have to do with robots taking over.
"Boring" AI safety is not a major risk. It's basically an extension of "humans can be reckless and incompetent" - a threat faced by human civilization since before recorded history. There's a very limited amount of people a Therac 25 can kill. Even Bhopal disaster has only caused this much harm.
Now, an AI that can play the game of human politics and always win, the way a skilled human can always win against the dumb AI bots in Civilization V? There is no upper bound on how bad that can go.
I know I've got a hard-earned cynical streak, but I am more worried about the mass sociological cascade. I absolutely don't worry about some ultra smart AI having malignant intent or even being enslaved by someone with malignant intent. Instead, it's the weird Tulip Mania or Salem Witch Trial risks that I do not know how to quantify.
How severely can the mass delusions and magical thinking around AI mix with other regressive social trends? I do not relish the mass effect of people deferring their decision making to glorified Magic 8 Ball devices, treating them as oracles rather than syntactic lava lamps. Will it lay waste to a generation of education, thinking, science, and policy so that society itself acts out some kind of Therac 25 or Bhopal incident at scale?
Or someone gave an agent insane levels of permissions to use a tool that impacts the physical world, and the agent started pressing dangerous buttons during a reasoning loop (not because it has intent to kill humans)
There are a bunch of mundane AI Safety risks that don't have to do with robots taking over.