> literally zero people who know the answer to that question
But plenty willing to guess. Folks without domain expertise tend to average the experts' guesses without accounting for the condition of being willing to guess in the first place.
If someone averages only the guesses from this subset, they’re ignoring the conditional selection effect, that the dataset (the set of guesses) is biased by the very act of being willing to guess. So the "average of guesses" doesn't represent the true expert population, and ignores the conditional selection effect.
There's also just the reality that most of these experts have a lot of skin in the game, and there's lots of pressure in this world to a true believer, so I'm not going to buy into it too much.
But plenty willing to guess. Folks without domain expertise tend to average the experts' guesses without accounting for the condition of being willing to guess in the first place.