(Geopolitical) prediction markets almost always tend to overreact. This is expec... | Hacker News

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		William_BB 19 days ago \| parent \| context \| favorite \| on: Two insider cases we've recently closed (Geopolitical) prediction markets almost always tend to overreact. This is expected from retail, so I'm not sure about the signal.

echoangle 19 days ago [–]

So why not just always bet against their reaction? Over time you should make money then, right?

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