Your comment would imply that not keeping your word would be the norm. Sad, but probably true in the world of high paid people.

Even if 1% of verbal contracts for 200 million dollars are not honored.. the expected value of not signing is -2 million.. seems smart to spend 5k on a lawyer, no?

I don't know why I'm challenging you on this, but the expected value is -2m times the probability of your contract being worth $200m in the first place. At best, that's 1 in a thousand, thus making the expected value at best $2000, making the $5000 a waste, per your logic.